What Next? Travel after COVID-19 (Survey Results)

Published on March 31, 2020

Dear Partners,

Thank you for taking the time to participate in this survey, especially during this difficult time for us and our companies. The results below are not the most positive. It seems that 2020 will be a lost year for travel.

It does give us however some hope for 2021, which even though it may start small, I hope will do some work in restoring confidence in the travel industry once more. No doubt, our industry will be changed after the recent events, but in the long run I am certain it will come out stronger!

Check the results below and feel free to contact me at info@drakosdmc.com if you have any questions.

Again thank you to all those who have participated.

Best Regards,

Orestis Aristides

Managing Director

Drakos DMC Cyprus

PART ONE: TIMEFRAMES

Flights:

On average, respondents believe that the COVID-19 pandemic will start subsiding globally by September and flight bans will start easing in the same month. However flights will only reach 50% of their 2019 levels until January 2021 and only 75% until June 2021.

Travel:

Corporate travel looks like the first to rebound reaching 50% (of 2019 levels) by February 2021, followed by Luxury and Sport travel in March. By April 2021, Cultural, Special Interest, Educational and Honeymoons are still expected to be at 50% of 2019 levels. Incentives and Conferences are expected to rebound to 50% on average by May 2021. Almost all categories are expected to reach 75% of pre-covid levels by the second half of 2021. Cruises are expected to take the biggest hit with only a 50% recovery in the Summer of 2021.

For the statistically inclined: most answers were consistent as you can see from the graphs above, however there is an average variation in the answers of +/- 10 weeks. Meaning that if the average answer is March 2021, it could vary anywhere from January to May.

PART TWO: MARKETS AND DESTINATIONS

The markets of Australia, East Asia and Northern Europe are expected to recover faster than the rest; and may start travelling sooner. A similar trend can be seen in destinations; as more “safe” destinations may be preferred. We expect that how governments will react in these regions (both in terms of the pandemic and in terms of economic measures) will play a big role in how they will recover.

RESPONDENTS
We had a total of 88 respondents to date from 33 countries and various segments of the travel industry.

Most of these are consistent and we do not see a significant change as more respondents send their replies. However sentiments may change in the next 2-3 months and we may follow up with a second survey.

SUMMARY OF ANSWERS